I've got a feeling : is Open Source at an inflexion point ?

Personal experience

Revolution Linux experimented more than 35% growth during the last year and things seems to follow the same trend this year. For us, it has been a great experience (not exempt for some growing pains !;-) and, when I look around, at open source companies, I can definitely see a trend.

Local Market (Quebec)

In our local market (Quebec province in Canada), we have more mature companies and they tend to have more people this year than the precedent (growth) and most of them seems to have find/defined a niche of some sort. Large companies are less and less generalist and have one or several specialties/focal points. We also experimented in Quebec some mergers between existing companies and this is clearly the sign of a more mature market.

Open Source at the International Level

At the international level, a continuous flow of Linux migration and open source adoption by companies,  as well as a bunch of acquisition/mergers occurs as well with, once again, a more focused approach for the existing players. Some leaders start to emerge with a sound financial model and extraordinary growth and profit.






Open source = competitive solutions

More and more, open source software is used/bought, not because it is open source/free (speech/beer) but because it is a good software (intrinsic value). The fact that this software/solution is open source is not the determining factor that make customers buy it. On a head to head competition with closed source alternative, a bunch of open source players emerges (Firefox, Apache, MySQL, PostgreSQL, Tomcat, etc.) and are in a position to become market-leaders.

In practice, a few years ago, when we started Revolution Linux, we mentioned "we are doing open source, this is great". These days, we say "we have an excellent solution for you. By the way, this solution is open source and this brings you several additional advantages ...". But clearly, the customers we are reaching now are not basing their choices on the fact that this is an open source software. They select the best technology for any given task and, more often than ever, Open Source simply compete ... and win.

"It's the fast that eat the slow"

A few years ago (10), Open Source companies where almost non existing and of very limited size. Open source software where ten time less numerous and had ten time less functions/capacity/line of code than today. If  "it’s not the big that eat the small…it’s the FAST that eat the slow" (see book of the same name by Jason Jennings & Laurence Haughton) is true, it means that open source development has proven that it is faster/more innovative than closed source development. And this will continue. But ... how fast ?

Inflexion point ?

My opinion is that open source is at an inflexion point : if the trend continue (i.e. : no major change from the competition, no major change in the environment, legal, financial, social domain), then the areas where open source is dominant because of its intrinsic value (i.e.: technical advantages, best solution, best product, etc.) will experiment a tremendous growth (exponential like).

Other open source solutions with smaller user base will either join the fast growing club ... or fade. Indeed, because several open source business model have a proven value, we see more and more companies joining the club and mimicking what is perceived as the root cause of the open source leader success. Some of them being coined with the not so sexy "fauxpen" term. Open or fauxpen companies fueled and increasing competition on existing solutions (including closed source one).

Open Source companies will follow the same trend : fast growing of fast waning.  In the last case, acquisition/mergers will keep the talent into open source and help fuel the fast growing company.

Next public speaking : Brainstorm K12 conference in Wisconsin

The Brainstorm conference will be held from the 28th of February to the 2nd of March in Wisconsin Dells. This is a dedicated conference for the IT+K12 world : the subtitle reads "For K12 techs by K12 techs".  K12 is a very particular domain where problems are somehow shared across the country and, I would even generalize a step further : problems in the US are the same as in most of other countries. Most of the K12 publicly founded education systems in the world don't have enough money to fulfill their core business.

In IT, this translate directly in terms of Student/Computer ratio. It vary from 3:1 to 7:1 depending on how you measure the statistics (computers that are older than 5 years, etc.). In the K12 IT department, the IT budget is only linked to the number of students, not to the number of computers that the IT department has to manage. Thus, increasing the number of computers really diminish the service quality : the same staff has to manage twice the number of devices !

All in all, we can say that education in general and K12 in particular can not leverage the power of networks and computers in a classroom environment : K12 schools manage scarcity while the IT world manage abundance (think Facebook, Google, etc.).

Open Source and thin-clients can certainly change this and empower students and teachers so that they can have one computer per user (when needed initially but, hopefully in a near future ... always) and, as a consequence, leverage the Web 2.0 and benefit from the global knowledge that is Internet.

I will present two conferences, one about large scale open source deployment in a K12 environment and the other one about Open Source thin clients, namely, the project Revolution Linux leads called LTSP-Cluster.

On another level, I will be co-chair of an Open Source round-table : my goal will be to make sure that every participants gets at least one of his question answered. We will prepare some questions and define the format. I will post our efforts on this blog.

Sessions that we will present :

• Break-1841 - The New 1 to 1: Scalable and Affordable Ubiquitous Computing Using Open Source
  
  In this session, you will see how the concept of "Ubiquitous Computing" could help bring your 1:1 project to life by removing barriers that prevent access to technology. Learn to provide access to the same computing environment no matter the device or the location ! All this using Open Source technologies that can scale to your entire school district.
  
• Break-1820 - Open Source Social Networking Tools
  
  MySpace, Facebook, You Tube.... Students in your school district are using them.
  Staff in your school districts are using them. Come and see how others are using internal open source social networking tools to leverage learning in a controlled environment. Get your feet wet using various open source social network and microblogging tools.
  
• Break-1840 - A Comprehensive LInux Back-End Infrastructure
  
  This session will describe a cost-effective approach to a global open source back-end infrastructure large number of students as deployed by Revolution Linux in various school districts in North America. The main goal of these projects is to centralize various information services (such as file servers, printing services, email and collaboration tools, web and authentication) in order to better manage resources and to transfer expertise locally. Using open source software enables the school board to offer more efficient services, such as automated schoolwork management and the automated generation of school website CMS.
   
• Break-1842 - Desktop in the Cloud with LTSP-Cluster
  
  See how it is possible to deploy and manage a large number of desktops in a private cloud using LTSP-Cluster. LTSP is the Linux Terminal Server Project. Using LTSP-Cluster enables you to deploy thousands of desktop in a scalable manner. You will be able to see and test yourself features that those Linux desktop offers using Thin or Fat Clients, such as 3D support, multimedia, 3D effects, and much more. You will also see remote access of the desktop in the Cloud, and support for Windows Terminal Server.
  
• Break-1843 - Netbook and laptop management with Linux
  
  Know how you can use Ubuntu Linux Netbook Remix in your netbook 1:1 environment, and see the possibilities available to manage a large number of mobile devices like laptops and netbooks in a flexible and scalable way.
  
• Open Source roundtable
  
  Come ask your question about K12 and Open Source !

I propose the #k12brainstorm tag for twitters out there.
Also, I have create a linkedin event : http://events.linkedin.com/Brainstorm-11-0-K12-techs-by-K12-techs/pub/232369

N900 : A fully fledge Linux phone for non geek

N900 review

While the N900 has been avalaible for several month, I would like to review it and share my first month findings.

First of all, I'm a geek and having a Linux phone has always been part of my vision for a clear sky future. Of course, as the CEO of a Linux company it makes a lot of sense. Convergence is not simply a network issue but a platform issue as well.

But I will not (at least in this blog entry) detail and share the geeky functions. You'll find numerous reviews about the N900 on the Web with all the gory details like speed, CPU, RAM, etc.

The point I want to make is that this is geeky piece of technology has been designed for non geeks ! I was expecting some instability, command line, reboot and some other flashing and hackish magic (disclaimer : I _had_ to flash my N900 but ... I did really bad things and have been warned several time by the system before ... I obtain root privileges and finally broke the N900). None of this is mandatory and the N900 is great as is.

Convergence

My life has changed since the N900 because it integrates in a transparent/user friendly way all the communication tools I have to use on a daily basis on my computer at the professional and personal level. Now, my laptop is in my pocket: I can do everything with my N900 !

Convergence is, for me, a way to abstract the medium used to communicate to concentrate on the conversations and user interaction. Out of the box, the N900 support : gmail/google talk, Jabber, SIP (VoIP standard), skype, facebook, flickr. You can add some additional networks later on ;-)

An application called Hermes connect to all the social network/accounts you have configured and help you grab the information (birthdate, profile picture, etc.) and then you can very quickly merge all those separates identities into one of your existing (or not!) contacts (of course, as a cell phone, it manages as well SMS, landlines, cell phones, etc. ;-).

Engagement and discussion !

So now, whenever I have access to a Wifi network (yes, the N900 can use Wifi) or if I decide to contribute to the poor telco companies using 3G (the N900 is GSM compliant and can function on every? GSM network) I have access to a unified communication device.

All in all, I had more and more contact with people (in no particular order friends, prospect, customers, family, etc.) on very various timezones because I can carry with me the N900.

Who should buy it and who should not ?

Non geek

• you are not a hardcore fan of a particular phone brand
• you have the use of one or more of the social network I mentioned and want them to converge in an easy to use/integrated way
• you need a communication device with a keyboard : the N900 keyboard is very usable and I have been using it to review Office documents, write numerous emails, tweets, SMS, etc.

Geek
 Even if this is not the subject of my post, some arguments nonetheless :

• Maemo (Debian) inside : yes, you can have a terminal, become root and break everything, patch your kernel, mount samba shares
• You can install a chroot of your favorite Linux flavor
• 3D & multitasking
• Development tools : you can create your own application. Lots of example to build on
• Lot of cool open source applications (openVPN, asterisk, python, etc.)
• Some people reported success with ... Android (can be a factor for some but I'm not ready to change anytime soon!)

Scott Berkun "Confession" review

Book Review : "Confession of a Public Speaker", by Scott Berkun

I have found the Confessions to be very informative and to the point. In this book, Scott Berkun is somehow doing a complicated exercise : sharing his own experience of public speaking requires something that can be compared, somehow, to a kind of "mental strip tease". Most of the book is build around some episodes of Scott Berkun's life. Sharing very personal story about his life could have produced a boring and uninteresting book (aka me, myself and I) but this is not the case.

Because the book is very grounded, the experiences that are shared are always interesting and completely integrated into the story. Also, the book includes a lot of experiences from other famous (or not!) public speakers in order to illustrate certain points.

Several key points are covered in a nice chapter per chapter approach. Each of the point somehow resonate with my own (limited) experience as a public speaker and because of this connexion, It is very easy to understand and benefit from the book.


Occidental people in general and north american in particular tend to confuse theoretical knowledge and practical experience : after reading a book or two and after having watched a video or two, we tend to become very quickly a martial art master or a buddhist Yogi. Scott Berkun is very careful to destroy this myth in every bit of advice that he shares and I really think that this is a key point here.


Like Malcom Gladwell in Outliers (10 000 hours of practice of any activity will make you a world class performer) training and practice are at the center of the book. Exactly like a professional athlete, you have to practice and practice again, using camera or Webcam, until you are confident and the story you are going to tell, in public, flow naturally. Once you are comfortable with your talk/storyline (your performance but also your supporting material : slides, video, handouts, etc.) then you have a chance to perform well in front of a crowd. And back to practice again : the more you will talk to a crowd, the better you will be...


No silver bullet here : work work and work again.


I have found a lot of very interesting experience, hints and advice : how to repeat, practical advices on how to be yourself (somehow!) on stage, test the room where you will perform, what to do if ... the room is empty, you forgot your slides, the crowd is angry, etc. 


All in all a very honest and practical book that will benefit anyone that has to publicly speak. In my mind and in no particular order : scientists/students that have to present they research (especially M.Sc., Ph.D. : practice your show !), teachers of any level (how to engage your students), managers of any level (how to engage your employee), salesman that present during show/conventions/conferences (how to engage your prospects/future customers).

Server Centric Computing + Ubiquitous Network = Anywhere Computing

The Web as a Model

The Web is a tremendous success. It has profoundly affected the human society since its inception several years ago.
Not a single sector of our society has been spared by the Web.
Some examples :

• The largest encyclopedia that human have created is entirely Web based (wikipedia)
• The biggest database publicly available (google search ?)
• The largest network
• The cheapest way to communicate all over the world
• The largest social network (Web 2.0 & co)

For me this is a clear demonstration that the server centric computing architecture is the most successful one.
In a few words, for non technical readers : all those services run on servers located in one or several data-centers located all over the planet.
The intelligence has been moved away from the extremities of the network (lets say, the device used to access the Web : a PC, a phone, a game console, etc.) to the servers.

An equivalent explanation is that the device you are using to read this post is not very important. It can be a dual-head 29" PC, a Mac, a laptop, a netbook or even a phone, running Linux, Windows, MacOS or any other device connected to the Internet. What is important is the network you are using and, more precisely, its speed!

Desktop computing is a thing from the past.

The idea that one can run complete applications on one single PC without network connectivity will appear to be very strange for our descendants !

What consequence for the enterprises and more generally for IT ?

One of the major IT cost is ... running PCs. PC stands for Personal Computer and the PC as we know it was never intended to be deployed and managed in any organization but reserved for personal use. Maintenance costs are huge for companies and they are hindering their ability to provide the same level of services, agility, change management as the Web based / Server Centric powerhouses.

However, given the fact that innovation is pushed from new market segments (search engines, social networking, etc.) into more "conventional" ones, I think that we are assisting to the paradigm shift from "all desktop" to Server Centric computing. It will happen for organization of any size and type in the years to come.

I was lucky to hear a conference from Brad Wheeler, the CTO of Indiana University, during OpenMinds 2008. He has a very nice catchphrase that can be applied in our context "From Edge to Leverage".
By migrating intelligence from the edge of the network (the actual PC/fat clients, local applications deployed on those PCs, etc.) the agile organization that will achieve this will gain a tremendous leverage. This catch phrase can also be applied to the so called "Core Business" of any company or organization.

Some example of leverage that can be achieved by migrating from PC Computing to Server Centric Computing :

• Lower cost of operation
• Greener Computing : 17W for a thin client, 22W with the server + cooling system vs 80W-200W desktops
• Sustainable computing : thin clients use a third of the hardware (??)
• Remote access for employees : work from any computer in the world (one of our customers called it "Anywhere computing", I really like the term!)
• Remote access for specific customers/members/suppliers/etc. to specific applications : now you can give access to any application to ... anybody
• Etc.

Entreprise Computing (EC) vs Elastic Cloud (EC ?) or why The Cloud will fail

Well, I think that the Cloud Computing is an elaborate marketing word for what was called "Scavenging" a few years ago in the high performance computing field.

Of course, the term "Cloud" is much more marketable and much more sexy. What's interesting with clouds is that different people looking at the same cloud see ... different things.
This is a very romantic way that allow actual owners of very expensive datacenters, servers and network connexion to rent you a bit of their infrastructure in order for them to ... make more money or lower their costs.

Cloud Computing poses a number of challenges. Most of them, are not technical but ethical and related to confidentiality and international law. The principe behind cloud computing is that your server is "in the cloud". You don't have to know where, what's its physical characteristics, in what country it is located, who runs it, etc. Basically, this is the ultimate IT silver bullet for Server Centric computing : it allows you to solve all your management problems at once and you will become more agile and lower your costs. Let say that the promise of cloud computing, like most of the marketing messages anyway, is not necessarily ... true.

What are the drawbacks of cloud computing ? Well, every advantage can become liability. Service levels can/are very difficult to measure, what is the cost of a "cloud" failure and who will pay ?
Where is the server located : in a foreign country, in some island, very friendly to hazard games, in a bunker, etc. For most organizations, this can cause a tremendous legal headache : who owns the server, the data, what laws are applicable, etc.

Price can be cheaper at this time to run some services on the cloud than to operate your own data-center (well, of course this is true only for small scale project).
However, I think that Moore's law and high bandwidth availability (fiber to home) will cause cloud computing to ultimately fail on this level too in the future, even for small scale projects.

For large scale projects and organizations, I think that it's less risky to operate its own servers than to rely on the cloud : this is not a mature market and you can expect protocols, technology and ultimately suppliers to evolve/disappear quickly in the following years. Of course, the one that _need_ data-center excellence (let's say Google, Amazon, etc.) will still try to lower their costs and rent you some spare CPU cycle and TB but it will not be their main business line, only a side business.

Private clouds can be the solution for organization that want to control more closely their data (and who don't !). But what is a private cloud ? Mainly a data-center with virtualization technology.

What about Anywhere computing (once again, not my expression, one from our customer) ?
It has already started : all you need is a [Wifi] network access and a "device" that can connect to your servers. Then complete applications or even a complete desktop will be streamed to you so that you can interact with servers (the one of your organisation, the ones from the Internet) with a very high speed and it will be the less expensive way to give you access to any application anywhere and I would add anytime. (Trop long !!!!)
Small organizations will use some form of Cloud Computing, larger organisation will use their own servers but the net results for you, the user are the same : you will have access to any application from any computer on the Internet anywhere at anytime.

As a company, Revolution Linux is focused on the "Anywhere computing" and this require a migration from PC based Computing to Server Centric Computing.
On the way to salvation, we want to decrease CO2 emission and this is also a benefit of Server Centric Computing : the so-called "device" can be a thin client using less than 20W, less expensive and requiring less than a third of material to build (of course, average life of those devices are 10 years, compare to 3-5 years for a regular desktop).

I think that the Open Source approach will also be more or less mandatory for two reasons : when you want to leverage your infrastructure and give access to more people (employes, members, customers, tech support, suppliers, partners, alumni, interns, students, etc..) not having the control of your application and licensing costs can block those initiatives. Not having complete access to the source code can pause real technical challenge that block the scalability of your solution.

Conclusion

I really think that the cloud will soon be replaced by a clear and blue sky illuminated by the sun of the server centric computing approach.
This is the most important lessons that we can learn from the tremendous success of the Web and of the applications that are nowadays developed on this incredibly rich platform.
Anywhere and anytime computing will be achieved with Open Source software using green and sustainable technology and the desktop paradigm will remain dominant at least for a generation. After that, well, who knows ?